10Meters News Report

March 7, 2001 – Make it simple and go slow. That's the advice Jupiter Media Metrix is giving U.S. wireless Web providers.

Predicting that the number of people logging on from mobile devices will increase from 4.1 million in 2000 to 96 million in 2005, Jupiter warns that providers should pay attention to weaknesses before offering bells and whistles.

Those weaknesses include bandwidth limitations, the use of multiple service platforms in the U.S. and the nation's numerous competing service providers.

"While the number of people in the U.S. logging on from mobile devices is about to enter a period of rapid growth, the wireless industry must not underestimate the complexity of delivering Web services in a highly competitive and fractured environment," said Seamus McAteer, senior Jupiter analyst.

"This means the industry must hold back on ambitious plans to deliver mobile multimedia, and instead focus on delivering simple yet practical interactive services, such as games, short messaging and location-specific directories – all of which are viable across multiple networks and narrow bandwidth."

Jupiter's report also finds that the vast majority of users – 74.9 million – will be using voice-centric handsets; the number of national carriers will decrease to "three giants within five years," and U.S. adoption of location-based services will lag behind the rest of the world due to FCC mandates.

The findings:

• Of the 96 million U.S. users of the mobile Web in 2005, 74.9 million will be using voice-centric handsets, 7.3 million will be using data-centric handsets, 4.4 million will be using on-line PDAs, and 9.4 million will be using off-line PDAs.

• In the U.S., regional carriers will struggle to survive against national carriers, and these will likely decrease in number to three giants within five years. At the same time, intense competition in the handset sector will yield carriers a greater degree of control over the platform for mobile content. Jupiter analysts predict, however, that carriers in the U.S. will not enjoy the same clout as their counterparts in the Japanese market, which is characterized by tight adherence to technology standards devised by mobile operators.

• Despite the promise of 3G broadband mobile networks, its services are no near-term reality. Instead, the U.S. market will be characterized by narrowband connections and packet data services, which will support economic delivery of highly interactive applications. While broadband mobile connections will provide a viable target platform in Japan within two years, companies focusing on the U.S. or European markets must wait between four and six years.

• The U.S. rollout of location-based services will take at least two years because of FCC mandates to provide precise positioning for 911 callers. However, major European carriers will begin to promote this capability within the next year using less-specific location data.

For more information, visit Jupiter at www.jmm.com.